Intel Community: The Server Room Blog

Ok, nothing is free, but some things are a pretty good deal. I spoke last time about the capacity boost delivered through virtualization. I threw out some big numbers, so here is a bit more detail. More accurately this capacity comes from applying virtualization to a new model for data center management ( you will have to do more than install a hypervisor). I felt pretty conservative with my 5x multiplier in five years.

Even if all you ever read is the in-flight magazine, you know virtualization is a big deal. Hype aside, virtualization is the foundation for realizing the "next generation data center-*NGDC*". Utilization on enterprise servers is pathetic. The number I used was 15%, but I have heard many customers talk of 5% or even less. The target I used for a super efficient data center was 75% utilization - hence the 5x.

Getting to 75% average utilization will take a lot more than simple consolidation of physical servers onto a virtualized server. This is why I jump to NGDC requirement. Reality says server utilization is all over the place, with odd spikes and many differences in where the bottle neck is. Capacity limitations can be in CPU, Memory, Disk, or Network.

The key to maximizing consolidation is in achieving what I call "Dynamic Resource Management" or sometimes Dynamic Resource Pooling. DRM is what moves the NGDC beyond simple consolidation to Policy Based Balancing of data center resources. In the DRM model a server has become a virtual collection of compute, storage, and network resources. This model is beginning to emerge in commercial offerings from VMware, Microsoft, Sun, Cisco, Virtual Iron, and others.

The trick here is to couple the ability( like in vmotion from VMware) to move a VM from one set of hardware to another, with policy based moves. In my view this makes DC efficiency "just" another logistics optimization problem, not unlike airline scheduling or package delivery. "A game to maximize the utilization, minimize energy use, maximize availability, gracefully handle exceptions, and meet all my SLAs". i.e. a really hard problem. I have tried to capture this journey to NGDC in a compelling graphic, but all seem to fall short. (Thinly veiled request for better pictures of NGDC)

For now achieving the NGDC requires complex software stacks, coupled with management heroics. Intel, IMHO, has the best roadmap and view of this future as shown in the addition of virtualization features across compute, storage, and network. I would like to hear from others where you see barriers and bridges to NGDC. Who are the rabbits leading the way to this dynamic data center?

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First the supply side. Looking at the growth projections in compute capacity delivered by Intel based servers ( with 45nm silicon, more cores and more efficiency ( enabling density)), data centers have the potential to increase compute capacity by 40x over the next five years. <pause to let 40x sink in> Yes, I said 40 times the capacity in the same space and power footprint. My initial reaction to this thought was ‘whoa' or better stated ‘whoa with several expletives'. Does this mean Intel, and the rest of the server market, will sell fewer bits? Employment wise I selfishly want the server business to grow.

As I began to explore the other side of the economy - the demand side - I began to relax, maybe even get a bit optimistic / excited. Let's start with the trends. Multiple market indicators show data volumes doubling every year. Of course this is not uniformly distributed, but on average that is a potential 32X increase in data over the next five years. <another moment to ponder what you will do with 32 times as much data>. This alone is probably enough to consume my 40x growth, but when I add the other magnifying trends, it will blow past all my capacity estimates. For example if user population is growing at 10%/year, we boost the 5 year growth in capacity demand to something near 50X, actually 51, but these are all calculations worthy of a napkin. 50x is bigger than 40x, but there is more. I am not sure how to quantify all other factors, like the expanding desire of the business to do more. From the customers I have spoken with I get the sense that most businesses are still pushing IT for more value through faster decisions, faster BI, etc. If this only adds 5% capacity demand per year, we are suddenly knocking on the door of 65x. <another moment to ponder 65x capacity demand> That is 65 times as many transactions! Not 65% more but 65 times more.

So, using all the best bits money can buy, many data center managers will still run out of capacity. The server business still looks good. Whew.

How to meet that capacity gap? Is it time to break ground on new data centers? Maybe, but maybe not... I mention some alternatives here, and plan to keep poking at ‘ways to avoid data center capital'.