May not look like Rosie the Robot or WALL•E (opening this weekend!!), but that doesn't mean that you won't start to be really affected by robots over the next few years. Case-in-point - the "Roomba" by iRobot - will vacuum your house while you are away at work saving you from the menial task. However, for iRobot, the robotic vacuum is just the beginning - they now offer Floor Washing, Shop Sweeping, Pool Cleaning, and Gutter Cleaning models as well. Notice a pattern here? It would seem that the visionary creators of the Jetsons (Bill Hanna and Joe Barbera) perfectly predicted with their Robotic Maid (Rosie Doll) that one of the more popular uses for robots in the future would be cleaning. However, I think that we are in just the first of 3 robotic waves.
However, before I get too far - let's define the term "Robot" - because without a solid definition it will be very difficult to make good predictions.
A "Robot" will be defined as:
An autonomous or semi-autonomous machine that is able to take inputs from sensors and react in a reliable way to do its job
Now, note that nowhere in that definition does it say that a robot must look anything like a human being. In fact, on a volume basis today, the vast majority of real hard working robots today are not androids (which are bi-pedal robots that at least loosely resemble people). The robots from the movie "I, Robot" are classic examples of androids. In reality, most of the robots in use today are usually some kind of "multi-jointed arm" typically seen in automotive factories, or in our TV Commercial about Talking Chips
So, that's the first wave - robots that are designed and built for a narrow range of functionality - putting doors on cars - vacuuming up crumbs - entertaining small children on X-mas morning. They will come in all shapes and sizes. In fact, to satisfy that last category - they will have to go one step further and be highly-customizable - personalizeable - so that, while they will be manufactured by the millions, with nearly no detectable difference, within hours of being opened or activated by their young owners, they will become as unique as a newly formed snowflake. They will have names, likes, dislikes, habits, personalities, quirks, and other idiosyncrasies that make them exactly the pet that every child wants - regardless of what traits they want in a pet.
But, in order to do that, the robots will need to be programmable. In order for kids to really get to do things, they will need an interface that the kids can relate to and manipulate to become what they want - like they do with computers today, on various kinds of websites like Webkinz. In other words, if the robotic pet in question was running on the same kind of processor as computers - it would be a more natural process for kids to modify them. In fact, the kids might use a website on a computer or a NetBook, which would then connect to the robotic pet by Wi-Fi, and transfer the new code. If they were all running on the same processor architecture, then there is no need to do crazy translations or modifications to get the code to work. There is a definite value here. And, then when you consider the TCO of a cat is around $1,000 a year, this approach will actually become very popular over the next several years. For a peek into an example: See This xkcd comic here:
However, that is only the first wave. The second wave will be when robots stop being built for a single purpose and will start to do what they need to do when we need them to do it. For example, iRobot is currently selling 3 different robots to vacuum the carpet, vacuum the shop, and wash the floor. At some point in the future, there will only be 1 "FloorBot" that will vacuum, sweep, wash, pick up toys, feed the cat, clean the litter box, and perhaps another half dozen functions. Think that is crazy? Remember when all you could do with your cell phone was talk? All things eventually increase in their functionality. Smart phones today support talking, texting, emailing, taking pictures, recording videos, playing music, playing games, and even displaying live TV shows in a package that is smaller than "voice-only" phones were only a decade ago. We will see this same type of trend hit robots. In fact, just like "ye olden days," when having a cat meant you didn't have mice in the house - robotic pets of the future will entertain children in the evenings, but then do plenty of housework during the school day.
However, before that can happen, the brainpower that these robots will need to possess will need to increase by at least an order of magnitude - and that is where Intel will come in - we will bring revolutionary levels of intelligence in packages that are increasingly energy efficient and highly-integrated. In fact, when you consider the power needs to move, vacuum, lift things, and other activities - the number of Watts that will be devoted to the "brains" will be trivial in comparison.
Once we get used to robots helping us with "niceties" and providing us with companionship, we will move into the third wave of robotics - where we start to turn over truly life changing and life critical activities to robots. One clear-cut example will be driving our cars - at least on the highway. Remarkable progress has been made over just the last few years with the "DARPA Grand Challenge." Last year, numerous vehicles were able to successfully navigate through a simulated urban environment and many of them made it through driving better than most teenagers. This whole project is due to a congressional mandate in the 2001 National Defense Authorization Act (Public Law 106-398), where Congress mandated in Section 220 that "...by 2015, one-third of the operational ground combat vehicles are unmanned."
So, with 33% of Army vehicles robotically controlled by 2015, we can expect to see civilian vehicles follow the same path in a relatively short time after that. Perhaps by 2050 it will actually be illegal to make a car that can be driven by a human. Don't laugh - it is already illegal to make them if they don't use unleaded gas, don't have seat belts, don't have air bags, or cannot be fitted with catalytic converters, and I'm sure a dozen other requirements that couldn't even have been imagined 40 years ago. Sound nutty? Go back in time to 1968 and tell automotive engineers back then that in the future there will be magic balloons hidden in the steering wheel that will pop out at just the right moment to cushion the driver during a crash and see how long it is before you get your very own private (padded) room and a free jacket with "extra-long sleeves." If you take it from the perspective that a robot will never be drunk, never fall asleep, never care what's on the radio, never talk on a cell phone, never do its makeup, or never do any of the other things that humans do to cause the vast majority of our accidents - it actually makes good sense.
We will also see entire houses get made by robots. Sound crazy? Watch the animations at Contour Crafting - amazing homes of almost whimsical design made out of concrete in about a day - maybe two. Imagine that - a house in a day or two where nothing was before. Cruise by an empty lot on Friday and on Monday - pow - new house. Of course, the lot will have to be leveled with a bulldozer but, don't forget, we'll have robots to do that as well.
What about medicine? Robotic surgeries? Loony? "I'd never put my life in the hands of a robot..." right? Ever stop to think about what welded the chassis in that car that you are driving down the highway at potentially lethal speeds? Ever take an elevator up more than 3 stories? Ever ride a roller coaster? Sorry - if you answered, "Yes," to any of these questions, you've already put your life in the hands of a robot. But think about the car example - why do we use robots to do so much welding in cars instead of people? One word: Tolerance. With better sensors and more intelligence, robots can do things with more and more exactness. Doesn't it make sense that, with ever-improving medical imaging equipment, a robot could go in and complete more intricate tasks, with more precision than a human and do it at exactly the same level of quality, or better, and not be distracted by hunger, fatigue, relationships, lawsuits, or anything else that distracts human doctors. Have you ever looked at surgical tools? So elaborate - so complicated because the human hand just can't bend the way it needs to sometimes. With a robot - it could have 12 arms in whatever size or shape it needs to be, using many of them at the same time with precision well beyond the levels at which humans are capable of performing.
We talked last time about entering the "Embedded Era" and that is true. But, just like the Bronze Era heralded many different technological advancements (metal tools, metal weapons, coinage, etc.), so too will the Embedded Era have its subplots - and the emergence of robots will be a big one. Someday, robotic lumber mills will go through the forests, cutting down every third tree, so as to not endanger habitats, but also thin out forests so that forest fires are less likely to occur and spread. Because the whole "RoboMill" will be on tracks, it will be able to go anywhere. All the waste of turning timber into planks will be immediately put back into the soil to help improve the health of the trees that are left. I wouldn't be surprised if the whole thing runs on sawdust - a natural by-product of what it does. And, thanks to only lumber being transported out of the forest, less fuel will be wasted due to transporting entire trees to a central lumber mill. Humans will get the wood they need to make things, animals will get to keep their habitats, and forest fires, which throw untold tons of CO₂ into the atmosphere will be reduced, and this will all be the case thanks to robots. My father made that prediction two decades ago and I think we will see it come true within the next decade.
To jump-start the conversations, I will close with a list of cool robots that are around today. What's your favorite robot? Post it below, or make a prediction of how robots will improve our lives in the future. Either way, let's start thinking about the wonders of robots to come (and go see WALL•E this weekend)
Wonderful post Eric.